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Polish GDP predicted the best growth

June 18, 2019

The IMF, economists and World Bank revised their forecast to an increase in GDP in Poland after a good first quarter.

A recent article on The First News explores how the Polish GDP is predicted to have the best growth in 2019 in the western World, showing that it is 4th in the World. It reports on how a “strong first quarter” has caused economists, the IMF and the World Bank to reassess Poland’s GDP prediction and that these reassessments show that it would see a 4 percent growth in 2019.

Explaining these changes, the article cites the World Bank who said in April: “The planned increase in state expenditures on the implementation of social programmes may accelerate economic development in Poland.”

Post the communism era, GDP was $66,895 million (€59,740 million) which rose to was $255.1 billion (€227.8 billion) by the time Poland joined the EU. The article claims that this year’s growth in GDP will mean it will surpass $600 billion (€535 billion) for the first time.

Supporting statements were tweeted by President Morawecki who said: “The International Monetary Fund has raised the GDP forecasts for Poland in 2019 to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent, and also lowered the CPI inflation forecast to 2 percent. The unemployment rate will also be a record low. It is yet more proof that our policy supports dynamic economic growth.”

Discussing the reassessment of GDP growth, economists Rafal Benecki and Jakub Rybacki from ING said: “The April data and our May estimate suggest the Polish economy should maintain solid growth in the second quarter. We expect a modest deceleration to 4.5 percent YoY. Investment outlays are likely to decelerate, and the net export contribution should be negative. However, we expect a stronger increase in private consumption in 2Q, but mainly in the second half of the year.”

According to the article on The First News the country’s GDP “is generated mainly by the service sector’s 54.7 percent with roughly the same percentage of workers operating in that field. Agriculture might employ just over 10 percent of Poles but it generates only about 2.5 percent of GDP, while industry generates 40 percent of GDP and employs 30 percent of the workforce.”

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